Chapter 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making

The Anatomy of Decisions

System 1 and System 2 Thinking

The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality

Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics

An Outline of Things to Come

Chapter 2 Overconfidence

The Mother of All Biases

Overprecision

Overestimation

Overplacement

Let's Hear it for Well-Calibrated Decision Making

Chapter 3 Common Biases

Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic

Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic

Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic

Integration and Commentary

Chapter 4 Bounded Awareness

Inattentional Blindness

Change Blindness

Focalism and the Focusing Illusion

Bounded Awareness in Groups

Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings

Discussion

Chapter 5 Framing and the Reversal of Preferences

Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices

We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocertainty

Framing and The Overselling of Insurance

What's It Worth to You?

The Value We Place on What We Own

Mental Accounting

Rebate/Bonus Framing

Joint-versus-Separate Preference Reversals

Conclusion and Integration

Chapter 6 Motivational and Emotional Influences on Decision Making

When Emotion and Cognition Collide

Self-Serving Reasoning

Emotional Influences on Decision Making

Summary

Chapter 7 The Escalation of Commitment

The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm

The Competitive Escalation Paradigm

Why Does Escalation Occur?

Integration

Chapter 8 Fairness and Ethics in Decision Making

Perceptions of Fairness

When We Resist "Unfair" Ultimatums

When We are Concerned about the Outcomes of Others

Why do Fairness Judgments Matter?

Bounded Ethicality

Overclaiming Credit

In-Group Favoritism

Implicit Attitudes

Indirectly Unethical Behavior

When Values Seem Sacred

The Psychology of Conflicts of Interest

Conclusion

Chapter 9 Common Investment Mistakes

The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions

Active Trading

Action Steps

Chapter 10 Making Rational Decisions in Negotiations

A Decision-Analytic Approach to Negotiations

Claiming Value in Negotiation

Creating Value in Negotiation

The Tools of Value Creation

Summary and Critique

Chapter 11 Negotiator Cognition

The Mythical Fixed Pie of Negotiation

The Framing of Negotiator Judgment

Escalation of Conflict

Overestimating Your Value in Negotiation

Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation

Anchoring in Negotiation

Conclusions

Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making

Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis Tools

Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise

Strategy 3: Debias Your Judgment

Strategy 4: Reason Analogically

Strategy 5: Take an Outsider's View

Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Others

Strategy 7: Nudge Wiser and More Ethical Decisions

Conclusion

References

Index