Preface ix

Acknowledgments xi

About the Companion Website xii

1 Pillars of Science: Reasons, Knowledge, and Truth 1

1.1 Epistemic Reasons 2

1.2 Reasoning from Evidence 7

1.3 Knowledge and Truth 11

1.4 Facts, Hypotheses, and Theories 12

1.5 Conclusion 17

2 Evidence, Observation, and Measurement 19

2.1 The Promises of Evidence 19

2.2 Basic Evidence and Derived Evidence 21

2.3 Measurement 26

2.4 Conclusion 31

3 Uses of Evidence 33

3.1 From Observation to Hypothesis 33

3.2 Theory Appraisal 36

3.3 The Demarcation Problem 42

3.4 Conclusion 49

4 Evidence, Rationality, and Disagreement 51

4.1 From Weak to Strong Evidence 51

4.2 Evidence and Rationality 60

4.3 Explaining Scientific Disagreement 63

4.4 Conclusion 69

5 The Nature of Probability 71

5.1 Basics of Probability 71

5.2 Interpretations of Probability 73

5.3 Probabilities as Credences 74

5.4 Epistemic Probabilities 79

5.5 Probabilities as Objective Chances 81

5.6 Probabilities and Defeasible Reasoning 84

5.7 Fallacies 86

5.8 Conclusion 87

6 Do Not Be Misled: Confounds and Controls 88

6.1 Trials and Errors 88

6.2 Treatment and Control 89

6.3 Randomization 94

6.4 Conclusion 99

7 Physical Experiments and Their Design 101

7.1 Historical Remarks 101

7.2 Setting Experimental Parameters 102

7.3 Dependent and Independent Variables 103

7.4 Learning from Experiment 106

7.5 Types of Errors: Pick Your Poison 112

7.6 Relationships between Experiment and Theory 113

7.7 Conclusion 117

8 Experimental Methods That They Don't Teach 119

8.1 Found and Natural Experiments 119

8.2 Thought Experiments 122

8.3 The Structure and Evidential Value of Thought Experiments 133

8.4 Learning from TEs 136

8.5 The Ubiquity of Thought Experiments 139

8.6 Are Computer Simulations Thought Experiments? 141

8.7 Conclusion 142

9 Models: Useful Lies and Informative Fictions 144

9.1 The Nature of Models 146

9.2 Modelling Techniques 153

9.3 Analogies 156

9.4 Learning from Models 159

9.5 Conclusion 165

10 Causation and Causal Inference 167

10.1 What's the Problem with Causation? 167

10.2 Hume's Challenge 168

10.3 Causation as Mere Regularities 170

10.4 Conserved Quantities to the Rescue? 171

10.5 Causation and Manipulation 173

10.6 Conclusion 177

11 Strange Causation - Time Travel and Remote Action 179

11.1 On Influencing the Past 180

11.2 Quantum Mechanics and Locality 191

11.3 Conclusion 196

12 But Is Any of It Real? 198

12.1 Theories and Truth 198

12.2 A Map of the Views 199

12.3 Are Groups Real? 201

12.4 Laws of Nature 205

12.5 Is Everything Real Observable? 208

12.6 Realism vs. Antirealism 213

12.7 Structural Realism 218

12.8 Realism and Explanation 219

12.9 Conclusion 221

13 Explanation and Understanding 223

13.1 The Deductive-Nomological Model 224

13.2 The Causal Model 229

13.3 The Unificationist Model 231

13.4 The Pragmatic Model 234

13.5 What about Realism? 237

13.6 Conclusion 238

14 Fundame