Introduction 1

Part I: The Certainty of Uncertainty: Probability Basics 7

Chapter 1: The Probability in Everyday Life 9

Chapter 2: Coming to Terms with Probability 19

Chapter 3: Picturing Probability: Venn Diagrams, Tree Diagrams, and Bayes' Theorem 39

Part II: Counting on Probability and Betting to Win 65

Chapter 4: Setting the Contingency Table with Probabilities 67

Chapter 5: Applying Counting Rules with Combinations and Permutations 77

Chapter 6: Against All Odds: Probability in Gaming 103

Part III: From A to Binomial: Basic Probability Models 129

Chapter 7: Probability Distribution Basics 131

Chapter 8: Juggling Success and Failure with the Binomial Distribution 151

Chapter 9: The Normal (but Never Dull) Distribution 167

Chapter 10: Approximating a Binomial with a Normal Distribution 187

Chapter 11: Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem 201

Chapter 12: Investigating and Making Decisions with Probability 221

Part IV: Taking It Up a Notch: Advanced Probability Models 233

Chapter 13: Working with the Poisson (a Nonpoisonous) Distribution 235

Chapter 14: Covering All the Angles of the Geometric Distribution 251

Chapter 15: Making a Positive out of the Negative Binomial Distribution 261

Chapter 16: Remaining Calm about the Hypergeometric Distribution 273

Part V: For the Hotshots: Continuous Probability Models 283

Chapter 17: Staying in Line with the Continuous Uniform Distribution 285

Chapter 18: The Exponential (and Its Relationship to Poisson) Exposed 299

Part VI: The Part of Tens 311

Chapter 19: Ten Steps to a Better Probability Grade 313

Chapter 20: Top Ten (Plus One) Probability Mistakes 323

Appendix: Tables for Your Reference 333

Index 343