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Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence
A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond
Buch von Adam D. M. Svendsen (u. a.)
Sprache: Englisch

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Beschreibung
This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ¿(un)certainty¿ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today¿s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI¿s ChatGPT and Google¿s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ¿Red Teaming¿. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ¿Intelligence Engineering¿ (IE) and, secondly, ¿Strategic Options Analysis¿ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.

The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.
This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ¿(un)certainty¿ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today¿s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI¿s ChatGPT and Google¿s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ¿Red Teaming¿. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ¿Intelligence Engineering¿ (IE) and, secondly, ¿Strategic Options Analysis¿ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.

The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.
Über den Autor

Bruce Garvey, MBA, PhD, advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to foresight, creativity and innovation, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties. He has 40 years' experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. He has published books and papers and made presentations covering the Uncertainty domain.

Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, is an established international intelligence and defence strategist, educator (Salamanca and Georgetown), researcher, analyst, adviser and consultant. Multi-sector experienced to a senior level, over the years his research and educator work has been pursued across Europe, Scandinavia, North America and Canada. He has authored several publications, such as numerous articles, chapters, policy & strategy briefs, and four books.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis.- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods.- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684).- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration.- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via 'Estimative/Probabilistic Language'.- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options.- Scoping 'Digital Twins' in intelligence & strategic foresight projects.- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios?.- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets.- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making.- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios?.- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework.- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment.- Advancing a New Methodological Process.- Process implications - Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI.

Details
Erscheinungsjahr: 2024
Fachbereich: Allgemeines
Genre: Recht, Sozialwissenschaften, Wirtschaft
Rubrik: Recht & Wirtschaft
Medium: Buch
Inhalt: xxxii
340 S.
11 s/w Illustr.
58 farbige Illustr.
340 p. 69 illus.
58 illus. in color.
ISBN-13: 9783031661143
ISBN-10: 3031661141
Sprache: Englisch
Einband: Gebunden
Autor: Svendsen, Adam D. M.
Garvey, Bruce
Hersteller: Springer Nature Switzerland
Springer International Publishing
Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, D-69121 Heidelberg, juergen.hartmann@springer.com
Maße: 241 x 160 x 26 mm
Von/Mit: Adam D. M. Svendsen (u. a.)
Erscheinungsdatum: 26.10.2024
Gewicht: 0,729 kg
Artikel-ID: 129484011
Über den Autor

Bruce Garvey, MBA, PhD, advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to foresight, creativity and innovation, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties. He has 40 years' experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. He has published books and papers and made presentations covering the Uncertainty domain.

Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, is an established international intelligence and defence strategist, educator (Salamanca and Georgetown), researcher, analyst, adviser and consultant. Multi-sector experienced to a senior level, over the years his research and educator work has been pursued across Europe, Scandinavia, North America and Canada. He has authored several publications, such as numerous articles, chapters, policy & strategy briefs, and four books.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis.- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods.- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684).- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration.- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via 'Estimative/Probabilistic Language'.- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options.- Scoping 'Digital Twins' in intelligence & strategic foresight projects.- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios?.- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets.- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making.- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios?.- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework.- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment.- Advancing a New Methodological Process.- Process implications - Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI.

Details
Erscheinungsjahr: 2024
Fachbereich: Allgemeines
Genre: Recht, Sozialwissenschaften, Wirtschaft
Rubrik: Recht & Wirtschaft
Medium: Buch
Inhalt: xxxii
340 S.
11 s/w Illustr.
58 farbige Illustr.
340 p. 69 illus.
58 illus. in color.
ISBN-13: 9783031661143
ISBN-10: 3031661141
Sprache: Englisch
Einband: Gebunden
Autor: Svendsen, Adam D. M.
Garvey, Bruce
Hersteller: Springer Nature Switzerland
Springer International Publishing
Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, D-69121 Heidelberg, juergen.hartmann@springer.com
Maße: 241 x 160 x 26 mm
Von/Mit: Adam D. M. Svendsen (u. a.)
Erscheinungsdatum: 26.10.2024
Gewicht: 0,729 kg
Artikel-ID: 129484011
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