Preface ix

Acknowledgements xiii

1 Natural Disasters and Sustainable Development in Dynamic Landscapes 1

1.1 Breaking News 1

1.2 Dealing with Future Disasters: Potentials and Problems 4

1.3 The Sustainable Society 5

1.4 Benefits from Natural Disasters 7

1.5 Summary 10

2 Defining Natural Hazards, Risks, and Disasters 13

2.1 Hazard Is Tied To Assets 13

2.1.1 Frequency and magnitude 14

2.1.2 Hazard cascades 16

2.2 Defining and Measuring Disaster 17

2.3 Trends in Natural Disasters 18

2.4 Hazard is Part of Risk 19

2.4.1 Vulnerability 19

2.4.2 Elements at risk 21

2.4.3 Risk aversion 23

2.4.4 Risk is a multidisciplinary expectation of loss 23

2.5 Risk Management and the Risk Cycle 24

2.6 Uncertainties and Reality Check 25

2.7 A Future of More Extreme Events? 26

2.8 Read More About Natural Hazards and Disasters 28

3 Natural Hazards and Disasters through The Geomorphic Lens 33

3.1 Drivers of Earth Surface Processes 34

3.1.1 Gravity, solids, and fluids 34

3.1.2 Motion mainly driven by gravity 36

3.1.3 Motion mainly driven by water 37

3.1.4 Motion mainly driven by ice 39

3.1.5 Motion driven mainly by air 40

3.2 Natural Hazards and Geomorphic Concepts 40

3.2.1 Landscapes are open, nonlinear systems 40

3.2.2 Landscapes adjust to maximise sediment transport 41

3.2.3 Tectonically active landscapes approach a dynamic equilibrium 43

3.2.4 Landforms develop toward asymptotes 44

3.2.5 Landforms record recent most effective events 46

3.2.6 Disturbances travel through landscapes 46

3.2.7 Scaling relationships inform natural hazards 48

4 Geomorphology Informs Natural Hazard Assessment 51

4.1 Geomorphology Can Reduce Impacts from Natural Disasters 51

4.2 Aims of Applied Geomorphology 53

4.3 The Geomorphic Footprints of Natural Disasters 54

4.4 Examples of Hazard Cascades 56

4.4.1 Megathrust earthquakes, Cascadia subduction zone 56

4.4.2 Postseismic river aggradation, southwest New Zealand 58

4.4.3 Explosive eruptions and their geomorphic aftermath, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile 59

4.4.4 Hotter droughts promote less stable landscapes, western United States 59

5 Tools for Predicting Natural Hazards 63

5.1 The Art of Prediction 63

5.2 Types of Models for Prediction 66

5.3 Empirical Models 67

5.3.1 Linking landforms and processes 68

5.3.2 Regression models 70

5.3.3 Classification models 72

5.4 Probabilistic Models 73

5.4.1 Probability expresses uncertainty 74

5.4.2 Probability is more than frequency 77

5.4.3 Extreme-value statistics 80

5.4.4 Stochastic processes 81

5.4.5 Hazard cascades, event trees, and network models 83

5.5 Prediction and Model Selection 84

5.6 Deterministic Models 85

5.6.1 Static models 85

5.6.2 Dynamic models 86

6 Earthquake Hazards 95

6.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Earthquakes 95

6.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Earthquakes 97

6.2.1 The seismic hazard cascade 97

6.2.2 Post-seismic and inter-seismic impacts 99

6.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Earthquakes 100

6.3.1 Offset landforms 101

6.3.2 Fault trenching 102

6.3.3 Coseismic deposits 104

6.3.4 Buildings and trees 107

7 Volcanic Hazar