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"This book reads like a conversation with Vitaliy: deep, insightful, inquisitive, and civilized."
--Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan
"Vitaliy Katsenelson walks you through his thought processes in constructing an active value portfolio. There is not enough discussion in value investing circles about when to sell stocks, and this book advances that subject. A good balance between theoretical discussion, real anecdotes, and commonsense observations."
--David Einhorn
"Active Value Investing clearly highlights that the stock market is not a smooth trend; rather, it has periods of surge and stall. Katsenelson explains range-bound markets and emphasizes that 'valuation matters'--the valuation paid for stocks impacts the ultimate return. Range-bound markets especially require an unconstrained process of analysis to identify undervalued securities, and Katsenelson delivers a much-needed framework to achieve superior returns."
--Ed Easterling, President, Crestmont Research, author of Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
"A delightfully documented and detailed deconstruction of buy-and-hold dogma. A must-read for any open-minded, thinking investor--professional or individual."
--Donald Cassidy, President, Retirement Investing Institute, and author of It's When You Sell That Counts
"Active Value Investing offers a rare combination of focus on value of underlying companies with appreciation for the effect of market dynamics on portfolio performance. Investors who understand both have the flexibility to succeed in a variety of markets. Katsenelson has the gift of packaging expert financial insight in an entertaining and educational package."
--Aaron Brown, Executive Director in Risk Methodology at Morgan Stanley author of The Poker Face of Wall Street
"Vitaliy has crafted a valuable assimilation of the primary market metrics that will benefit the active trader and long-term investor alike."
--Todd Harrison, founder and CEO, Minyanville Publishing & Multimedia, LLC
"Active Value Investing has the hallmarks of all great investing books--easy to read, humorous at times, and, most of all, it demonstrates Vitaliy's investing process in terms accessible to the novice and expert alike. Despite its title, this is a book for bull, bear, or range-bound markets and will be highly recommended to our newsletter subscribers."
--Philip Durell, advisor, The Motley Fool Inside Value
"This book reads like a conversation with Vitaliy: deep, insightful, inquisitive, and civilized."
--Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan
"Vitaliy Katsenelson walks you through his thought processes in constructing an active value portfolio. There is not enough discussion in value investing circles about when to sell stocks, and this book advances that subject. A good balance between theoretical discussion, real anecdotes, and commonsense observations."
--David Einhorn
"Active Value Investing clearly highlights that the stock market is not a smooth trend; rather, it has periods of surge and stall. Katsenelson explains range-bound markets and emphasizes that 'valuation matters'--the valuation paid for stocks impacts the ultimate return. Range-bound markets especially require an unconstrained process of analysis to identify undervalued securities, and Katsenelson delivers a much-needed framework to achieve superior returns."
--Ed Easterling, President, Crestmont Research, author of Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
"A delightfully documented and detailed deconstruction of buy-and-hold dogma. A must-read for any open-minded, thinking investor--professional or individual."
--Donald Cassidy, President, Retirement Investing Institute, and author of It's When You Sell That Counts
"Active Value Investing offers a rare combination of focus on value of underlying companies with appreciation for the effect of market dynamics on portfolio performance. Investors who understand both have the flexibility to succeed in a variety of markets. Katsenelson has the gift of packaging expert financial insight in an entertaining and educational package."
--Aaron Brown, Executive Director in Risk Methodology at Morgan Stanley author of The Poker Face of Wall Street
"Vitaliy has crafted a valuable assimilation of the primary market metrics that will benefit the active trader and long-term investor alike."
--Todd Harrison, founder and CEO, Minyanville Publishing & Multimedia, LLC
"Active Value Investing has the hallmarks of all great investing books--easy to read, humorous at times, and, most of all, it demonstrates Vitaliy's investing process in terms accessible to the novice and expert alike. Despite its title, this is a book for bull, bear, or range-bound markets and will be highly recommended to our newsletter subscribers."
--Philip Durell, advisor, The Motley Fool Inside Value
VITALIY N. KATSENELSON, CFA, has been involved with the investment industry since 1994. He is a portfolio manager with Investment Management Associates, where he comanages institutional and personal assets utilizing fundamental analysis. He is also an adjunct faculty member at the University of Colorado at Denver, Graduate School of Business. Katsenelson is a regular contributor to the Financial Times, MarketWatch from Dow Jones, and [...]. He is a CFA charter holder, member of CFA Institute, has served on the boards of the CFA Society of Colorado, and is currently on the board of the Retirement Investment Institute. Katsenelson received both his bachelor of science and his master of science in finance from the University of Colorado at Denver, where he graduated cum laude. To read articles Katsenelson has written over the years, please visit:
[...] or [...]
Preface xiii
Part One What the Future Holds
Chapter 1 Introduction: Range-Bound Markets Happen 3
Fasten Your Seat Belts and Lower Your Expectations 3
Let's Identify the Animal 4
Secular versus Cyclical 4
Distinction between Secular Bull, Bear, and Range-Bound Markets 6
Is 100 Years Long Enough? 7
Stocks Carried the Torch in the Long-Run Marathon 8
International Stocks Were Bright Lights, Too 10
Will Gold Shine Again? 11
Gold's Recently Emerged Competition 13
The Deception of the Long Run (Marathon) 14
Range-Bound Markets Erode Bull Market Returns 15
The Long Run for Us May Be Shorter Than We Think 17
Chapter 2 Emotions of Secular Bull, Bear, and Range-Bound Markets 23
Bull Market Euphoria 23
Bear Market Doldrums 25
What Does a Secular Range-Bound Market Feel Like? 29
Volatility of Bull and Range-Bound Markets 31
Chapter 3 Stock Market Math 37
Sources of Capital Appreciation: Earnings Growth 38
Sources of Capital Appreciation: Price to Earnings 48
Sources of Dividend Yield 57
Why Range-Bound Markets Follow Bull Markets 61
It Is Not Over Until It Is Over 62
Chapter 4 Bonds: A Viable Alternative? 67
Why Not Bonds? 67
Asset Allocation Role Is Diminished in Range-Bound Markets 69
Part Two Active Value Investing
Analytics
Introduction to Analytics: The Quality, Valuation, and Growth Framework 77
Chapter 5 The ''Q''-Quality 79
Competitive Advantage 79
Management 82
Predictable Earnings 89
Strong Balance Sheet 91
Significance of Free Cash Flows 95
High Return on Capital 102
Conclusion 102
Chapter 6 The ''G''-Growth 103
Sources of Growth: Earnings Growth and Dividends 103
Past Has Passed 111
Future Engines of Growth 112
Dividends 114
Growth Matters-A Lot! 117
Chapter 7 The ''V''-Valuation 119
Tevye the Milkman's Approach to Valuation 119
Review of Relative Valuation Tools 128
Absolute Valuation Tools-Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 132
Relative versus Absolute Tools 134
Absolute Models Overview 136
The False Precision of Math 137
Absolute P/E Model 139
Discount Rate Model 148
Margin of Safety Model 151
The Marriage of Absolute P/E and Margin of Safety 155
Bring Out the Toolbox 155
The P/E Compression and How to Deal with It 157
Chapter 8 Let's Put It All Together 165
The Added Clarity 165
One Out of Three Is Not Enough 165
Two Out of Three Is Better, But Is It Enough? 167
Conclusion 174
Strategy
Introduction to Strategy: The Value of Process and Discipline 177
Chapter 9 Buy Process-Fine-Tuning 179
The Value of the Process and Discipline 179
Think Long-Term, Act Short-Term 181
Meet Your New Best Friend-Volatility 182
Time Stocks, Not the Market 183
Cash Is King 185
Be Ready to Strike When the Time Comes 186
Chapter 10 Buy Process-Contrarian Investing 187
Contrarian Is the Name of the Game 187
You Don't Have to Own It 189
Be a Myth Buster 190
Quantify Everything and Be a Contrarian Headline Investor 191
Time Arbitrage 192
Finding New Ideas 193
Do In-Depth Primary (Your Own) Research and Document It 200
Chapter 11 Buy Process-International Investing 201
The World Has Flattened: Hola, Bonjour, Guten Tag, Buon Giorno to the Rest of the World 201
Same Difference 202
Location of Corporate Headquarters Abroad May Not Constitute a Foreign Company 203
You Are Exposed to More Foreign Political Risk Than You Realize 204
What About the United States? 205
Pick Your Comfort Zone and Go from There 206
Don't Confuse a Fast-Growing Economy and a Good Investment 207
Currency Risk 207
How Much Is Too Much? 208
Conclusion 209
Chapter 12 Sell Process-Make Darwin Proud 211
Selling When Stock Price Has Gone Up 212
Selling When Fundamentals Have Deteriorated 215
Conclusion 221
Risk and Diversification
Introduction to Risk and Diversification 225
Chapter 13 A Different View of Risk 227
What Is Risk? 227
Properties of Randomness 228
The Crocodile Hunter, Randomness, and Investing 229
Understand the Linkage Between and Inside QVG Dimensions 234
Identify Impact of Randomness on Value Creators 235
The Cost of Being Wrong 238
Conclusion 239
Chapter 14 A Different View of Diversification 241
Don't Bet the Farm! 242
Too Many Eggs or Too Many Baskets 243
Mental Accounting and Diversification 244
Mental Accounting and Randomness in a Stock Portfolio 246
Randomness Could Be Your Friend 248
Chapter 15 Conclusion and Implication 251
I Could Be Wrong, But I Doubt It 251
Bull Markets 252
Bear and Range-Bound Markets 253
Bonds? 255
No, I Am Not Wrong 256
Appendix-Years to Bull Market 257
Acknowledgments 267
Notes 273
Index 275
| Erscheinungsjahr: | 2007 |
|---|---|
| Fachbereich: | Betriebswirtschaft |
| Genre: | Wirtschaft |
| Rubrik: | Recht & Wirtschaft |
| Medium: | Buch |
| Inhalt: | 304 S. |
| ISBN-13: | 9780470053157 |
| ISBN-10: | 0470053151 |
| UPC: | 723812889174 |
| EAN: | 0723812889174 |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Herstellernummer: | 14505315000 |
| Einband: | Gebunden |
| Autor: | Katsenelson, Vitaliy N |
| Hersteller: |
Wiley
John Wiley & Sons |
| Maße: | 235 x 157 x 21 mm |
| Von/Mit: | Vitaliy N Katsenelson |
| Erscheinungsdatum: | 28.09.2007 |
| Gewicht: | 0,598 kg |
VITALIY N. KATSENELSON, CFA, has been involved with the investment industry since 1994. He is a portfolio manager with Investment Management Associates, where he comanages institutional and personal assets utilizing fundamental analysis. He is also an adjunct faculty member at the University of Colorado at Denver, Graduate School of Business. Katsenelson is a regular contributor to the Financial Times, MarketWatch from Dow Jones, and [...]. He is a CFA charter holder, member of CFA Institute, has served on the boards of the CFA Society of Colorado, and is currently on the board of the Retirement Investment Institute. Katsenelson received both his bachelor of science and his master of science in finance from the University of Colorado at Denver, where he graduated cum laude. To read articles Katsenelson has written over the years, please visit:
[...] or [...]
Preface xiii
Part One What the Future Holds
Chapter 1 Introduction: Range-Bound Markets Happen 3
Fasten Your Seat Belts and Lower Your Expectations 3
Let's Identify the Animal 4
Secular versus Cyclical 4
Distinction between Secular Bull, Bear, and Range-Bound Markets 6
Is 100 Years Long Enough? 7
Stocks Carried the Torch in the Long-Run Marathon 8
International Stocks Were Bright Lights, Too 10
Will Gold Shine Again? 11
Gold's Recently Emerged Competition 13
The Deception of the Long Run (Marathon) 14
Range-Bound Markets Erode Bull Market Returns 15
The Long Run for Us May Be Shorter Than We Think 17
Chapter 2 Emotions of Secular Bull, Bear, and Range-Bound Markets 23
Bull Market Euphoria 23
Bear Market Doldrums 25
What Does a Secular Range-Bound Market Feel Like? 29
Volatility of Bull and Range-Bound Markets 31
Chapter 3 Stock Market Math 37
Sources of Capital Appreciation: Earnings Growth 38
Sources of Capital Appreciation: Price to Earnings 48
Sources of Dividend Yield 57
Why Range-Bound Markets Follow Bull Markets 61
It Is Not Over Until It Is Over 62
Chapter 4 Bonds: A Viable Alternative? 67
Why Not Bonds? 67
Asset Allocation Role Is Diminished in Range-Bound Markets 69
Part Two Active Value Investing
Analytics
Introduction to Analytics: The Quality, Valuation, and Growth Framework 77
Chapter 5 The ''Q''-Quality 79
Competitive Advantage 79
Management 82
Predictable Earnings 89
Strong Balance Sheet 91
Significance of Free Cash Flows 95
High Return on Capital 102
Conclusion 102
Chapter 6 The ''G''-Growth 103
Sources of Growth: Earnings Growth and Dividends 103
Past Has Passed 111
Future Engines of Growth 112
Dividends 114
Growth Matters-A Lot! 117
Chapter 7 The ''V''-Valuation 119
Tevye the Milkman's Approach to Valuation 119
Review of Relative Valuation Tools 128
Absolute Valuation Tools-Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 132
Relative versus Absolute Tools 134
Absolute Models Overview 136
The False Precision of Math 137
Absolute P/E Model 139
Discount Rate Model 148
Margin of Safety Model 151
The Marriage of Absolute P/E and Margin of Safety 155
Bring Out the Toolbox 155
The P/E Compression and How to Deal with It 157
Chapter 8 Let's Put It All Together 165
The Added Clarity 165
One Out of Three Is Not Enough 165
Two Out of Three Is Better, But Is It Enough? 167
Conclusion 174
Strategy
Introduction to Strategy: The Value of Process and Discipline 177
Chapter 9 Buy Process-Fine-Tuning 179
The Value of the Process and Discipline 179
Think Long-Term, Act Short-Term 181
Meet Your New Best Friend-Volatility 182
Time Stocks, Not the Market 183
Cash Is King 185
Be Ready to Strike When the Time Comes 186
Chapter 10 Buy Process-Contrarian Investing 187
Contrarian Is the Name of the Game 187
You Don't Have to Own It 189
Be a Myth Buster 190
Quantify Everything and Be a Contrarian Headline Investor 191
Time Arbitrage 192
Finding New Ideas 193
Do In-Depth Primary (Your Own) Research and Document It 200
Chapter 11 Buy Process-International Investing 201
The World Has Flattened: Hola, Bonjour, Guten Tag, Buon Giorno to the Rest of the World 201
Same Difference 202
Location of Corporate Headquarters Abroad May Not Constitute a Foreign Company 203
You Are Exposed to More Foreign Political Risk Than You Realize 204
What About the United States? 205
Pick Your Comfort Zone and Go from There 206
Don't Confuse a Fast-Growing Economy and a Good Investment 207
Currency Risk 207
How Much Is Too Much? 208
Conclusion 209
Chapter 12 Sell Process-Make Darwin Proud 211
Selling When Stock Price Has Gone Up 212
Selling When Fundamentals Have Deteriorated 215
Conclusion 221
Risk and Diversification
Introduction to Risk and Diversification 225
Chapter 13 A Different View of Risk 227
What Is Risk? 227
Properties of Randomness 228
The Crocodile Hunter, Randomness, and Investing 229
Understand the Linkage Between and Inside QVG Dimensions 234
Identify Impact of Randomness on Value Creators 235
The Cost of Being Wrong 238
Conclusion 239
Chapter 14 A Different View of Diversification 241
Don't Bet the Farm! 242
Too Many Eggs or Too Many Baskets 243
Mental Accounting and Diversification 244
Mental Accounting and Randomness in a Stock Portfolio 246
Randomness Could Be Your Friend 248
Chapter 15 Conclusion and Implication 251
I Could Be Wrong, But I Doubt It 251
Bull Markets 252
Bear and Range-Bound Markets 253
Bonds? 255
No, I Am Not Wrong 256
Appendix-Years to Bull Market 257
Acknowledgments 267
Notes 273
Index 275
| Erscheinungsjahr: | 2007 |
|---|---|
| Fachbereich: | Betriebswirtschaft |
| Genre: | Wirtschaft |
| Rubrik: | Recht & Wirtschaft |
| Medium: | Buch |
| Inhalt: | 304 S. |
| ISBN-13: | 9780470053157 |
| ISBN-10: | 0470053151 |
| UPC: | 723812889174 |
| EAN: | 0723812889174 |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Herstellernummer: | 14505315000 |
| Einband: | Gebunden |
| Autor: | Katsenelson, Vitaliy N |
| Hersteller: |
Wiley
John Wiley & Sons |
| Maße: | 235 x 157 x 21 mm |
| Von/Mit: | Vitaliy N Katsenelson |
| Erscheinungsdatum: | 28.09.2007 |
| Gewicht: | 0,598 kg |
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