Part 1. Markets and Economics

Section 1: Industry Structure and Characteristics

1. Performance

1.1 Refinery Supply Chains

1.1.1 Input-Output Model

1.1.2 Infrastructure

1.1.3 Location

1.1.4 Commercial Requirements

1.2 Performance

1.3 Refinery Economics

1.4 Refining Yields

1.5 Refining Margins

1.5.1 Gross Margin

1.5.2 Net Margin and Netback

1.5.3 Application

1.6 Margin Comparisons

1.6.1 Sweet vs. Sour Crude

1.6.2 Cracker vs. Coker Refinery

1.7 Factors That Impact Margins

1.8 Crack Spreads

1.9 Market Data

References

2. Products

2.1 Overview

2.2 Petroleum Gases

2.2.1 Methane

2.2.2 Ethane

2.2.3 Propane

2.2.4 Butane

2.2.5 Natural Gas Liquids

2.3 Light Distillates

2.3.1 Naphthas

2.3.2 Gasolines

2.4 Middle Distillates

2.4.1 Jet Fuel

2.4.2 Kerosene

2.4.3 Automotive Diesel

2.4.4 Marine Diesel

2.4.5 Light Fuel Oil

2.5 Heavy Fuel Oils

2.6 Specialty Products

2.6.1 Base Oils and Lubricants

2.6.2 Engine Oils

2.6.3 Greases

2.6.4 Waxes

2.6.5 Bitumen

2.6.6 Petroleum Coke

2.6.7 Carbon Black

References

3. Processes

3.1 Overview

3.2 Separation

3.2.1 Perfect Batch Distillation

3.2.2 Distillation Curves

3.2.3 Fractions

3.2.4 Atmospheric Distillation

3.2.5 Vacuum Distillation

3.3 Conversion

3.3.1 Thermal Cracking

3.3.2 Catalytic Cracking

3.3.3 Hydrocracking

3.3.4 Coking

3.4 Finishing

3.4.1 Hydrotreating

3.4.2 Catalytic Reforming

3.4.3 Alkylation

3.4.4 Isomerization

References

4. Prices

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Price Formation

4.3 Global Oil and Product Markets

4.4 Price Characteristics

4.4.1 Prices are Volatile

4.4.2 Prices are Unpredictable

4.4.3 Business Cycle Impacts are Periodic

4.4.4 Price Shocks

4.4.5 Market Factors Dominate Price Signals

4.4.6 Private Factors are Secondary in Price Formation

4.5 Supply and Demand

4.5.1 Supply Curves

4.5.2 Demand Curves

4.5.3 Equilibrium

4.6 Market Factors

4.6.1 Demand

4.6.2 Supply

4.6.3 Production Cost

4.6.4 OPEC

4.6.5 Spare Production Capacity

4.6.6 Supply Disruptions

4.6.7 Technology Impacts

4.7 Private Factors

4.7.1 Quality

4.7.2 Yield

4.8 World Production circa 2017

4.9 Refined Product Prices

References

5. Potpourri

5.1 Business Model

5.1.1 Required Spending

5.1.2 Discretionary Spending

5.1.3 Capital Investments

5.2 Company Classification

5.2.1 Firm Type

5.2.2 Ownership

5.2.3 Level of Integration

5.2.4 Business Objectives

5.3. U.S. and World Capacity Trends

5.3.1 Distillation

5.3.2 Coking

5.3.3 Catalytic Cracking

5.3.4 Hydrocracking

5.3.5 Hydrotreating

5.3.6 Reforming, Alkylation, Isomerization

5.3.7 Aromatics and Lubricants

5.3.8 Hydrogen

5.3.9 Sulfur

5.3.10 Asphalt

5.4. U.S. Capacity Correlations

5.5 Market Valuation

5.6 Capital Investment

References

Section 2: Cost Estimation and Complexity

6. Cost Estimation

6.1 Construction Cost Factors

6.1.1 ISBL

6.1.2 USGC Reference

6.1.3 Project Type

6.1.4 Unit Addition vs. Grassroots Refinery

6.1.5 Process Technology

6.1.6 Process Severity

6.1.7 Unit Requirements

6.1.8 Contract Type

6.1.9 Actual vs. Estimated Cost

6.1.10 Time

6.1.11 Location

6.2 Unit Cost

6.2.1 Source Data

6.2.2 Sample Size

6.2.3 Normalization

6.3 Cost Functions

6.3.1 Specification

6.3.2 Dependent Variable

6.3.3 Parameter Estimation

6.3.4 Data Processing

6.3.5 Data Exclusion

6.3.6 Cost Envelopes

6.4 USGC Grassroots Construction Cost

6.5 Operating Cost Factors

6.5.1 Common vs. Unique Factors

6.5.2 Utility Prices

6.5.3 Capacity, Complexity, Age

6.5.4 Time

6.5.5 Location

6.5.6 Exceptional Events

6.6 Operating Expenses

6.6.1 Data Sources

6.6.2 Consolidation Levels

6.7 U.S. Operating Cost Statistics, 2010-2014

References

7. Refinery Complexity

7.1 Ideal Refinery

7.2 Nelson Complexity Index

7.2.1 Motivation

7.2.2 Complexity Factor

7.2.3 Refinery Complexity

7.3 Complexity Factors

7.3.1 Definition

7.3.2 Measurement

7.3.3 Complexity Cross Factor

7.3.4 Uncertainty

7.3.5 Traditional Approach

7.4 Refinery Complexity

7.5 U.S. and World Statistics circa 2018

7.5.1 Regional Capacity

7.5.2 U.S. Refining Complexity

7.5.3 Largest World Refineries

7.5.4 Conversion Capacity

7.5.5 FCC-Equivalent Capacity

7.6 Complexity Equation

7.7 Cost Estimation

7.8 Complexity Factor at Reference Capacity

7.8.1 Specification

7.8.2 U.S. CFRC Statistics

References

8. Classification

8.1 Refinery Categories

8.2 Very Simple Refinery

8.3 Simple Refinery

8.4 Complex Refinery

8.5 Krotz Springs, Louisiana

8.6 St. Paul Park, Minnesota

9. Complexity Applications

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Complexity Functional

9.2.1 Reference Capacity Approach Extension

9.2.2 Factor Functional Average

9.2.3 Evaluation

9.2.4 Closed-Form Expressions

9.2.5 Comparison

9.2.6 U.S. Refinery Complexity

9.3 Complexity Moments

9.4 Spatial Complexity

9.5 Replacement Cost

9.6 Sales Price Models

9.6.1 Asset Transactions

9.6.2 Formulation

9.6.3 Constraints

9.7 Complexity Barrels

9.8 Inverse Problem

9.8.1 Three Refinery Example

9.8.2 Matrix Formulation

References

10. Modern Refineries

10.1 Hydrocracker

10.2 Lubes

10.3 Integrated/Petrochemical

Section 3: Crude Oil and Properties

11. Origin and Composition

11.1 Geologic Time

11.2 Generation, Migration and Accumulation

11.2.1 Source Rock

11.2.2 Generation

11.2.3 Migration

11.2.4 Accumulation

11.2.5 Sedimentary Basins

11.3 The Hydrocarbon Source

11.3.1 Origin

11.3.2 Kerogen Type

11.3.3 Oil Window

11.3.4 Transformation Sequence

11.4 Molecular Composition

11.4.1 Naming Organic Chemicals

11.4.2 Early Classifications

11.4.3 Hydrocarbons

11.4.4 Paraffin (Alkane) Series

11.4.5 Naphthene (Cycloparaffin) Series

11.4.6 Aromatic (Benzene) Series

11.5 Crude Oil Classification

11.5.1 Component Groups

11.5.2 Ternary Diagram

11.5.3 Tissot-Welte Classification

11.5.4 Crude Oil Classes

11.5.6 Marine vs. Nonmarine Organic Matter

11.5.7 High Sulfur vs. Low Sulfur Oils

11.6 Alteration and Thermal Maturity Pathways

11.6.1 Thermal Alteration

11.6.2 Deasphalting

11.6.3 Biodegradation

11.6.4 Water Washing

Reference

12. Crude Quality

12.1 Indicators

12.1.1 Color

12.1.2 Density

12.1.3 Heteroatoms

12.1.4 Chemical Structure

12.1.5 Viscosity

12.2 Classification

12.3 Blends of Crude Oils

12.3.1 Additive Properties

12.3.2 Nonadditive Properties

References

13. Distillation Profile

13.1 Distillation Curves

13.2 Laboratory Methods

13.2.1 Standards

13.2.2 ASTM D86

13.2.3 ASTM D1160

13.2.4 ASTM D2892

13.2.5 ASTM D2887

13.2.6 ASTM D6352, D7169

13.3 Hempel Method

13.3.1 Procedure

13.3.2 40 mmHg Pressure Correction

13.3.3 Temperatures Beyond 790°F

13.3.4 Gravity Midpercent

13.3.5 Heavy Hydrocarbons

13.4 Distillation Profile Summary

13.5 Hasting Field, Texas

13.6 North Slope Crude, Alaska

References

14. Crude Properties

14.1 Bayon Choctaw and West Hackberry Blends

14.2 Crude Oil Assay

14.3 Chemical Properties

14.3.1 Elemental Analysis

14.2.2 PNA Composition

14.3.3 Carbon Residue

14.4 Composition

14.4.1 Carbon Hydrogen Ratio

14.4.2 Sulfur

14.4.3 Nitrogen

14.4.4 Metals

14.4.5 Asphaltenes

14.4.6 Resins

14.4.7 Waxes

14.4.8 Salt Content

14.4.9 Acid Number

14.5 Physical Properties

14.5.1 Molecular Weight

14.5.2 API Gravity

14.5.3 UOP Characterization Factor

14.5.4 Viscosity

14.5.5 Pour Point

14.5.6 Reid Vapor Pressure

References

15. Fraction Characterization

15.1 Correlation Relations

15.2 Carbon Hydrogen Weight Ratio

15.3 Carbon Residue

15.4 Asphaltene Content

15.5 Molecular Weight

15.6 Aniline Point

15.7 Smoke Point

15.8 Viscosity

15.9 Refractive Index

15.10 Cloud Point

15.11 Pour Point

15.12 Freezing Point

15.13 Cetane Index

15.14 Molecular Type Composition

References

Section 4: Fuel Specifications

16. Standards, Specifications and Fuel Quality

16.1 Types of Specifications

16.2 Consensus Specifications Definitions

16.3 Test Methods

16.4 Transportation Fuel Specifications

16.4.1 Gasoline - ASTM D4814

16.4.2 Jet Fuel - ASTM D1653

16.4.3 Diesel - ASTM D975

[...]opean Automotive Fuels

16.5 Mandatory and Suggested Specifications

16.6 Enforcement

16.7 Fuel Quality

16.8 Properties Not in Specifications

References

17. Gasoline

17.1 Introduction

17.2 Octane Number

17.3 Volatility

17.3.1 Vapor Pressure

17.3.2 Distillation Profile

17.3.3...