Dr. David Lucy, School of Mathematics, The University of Edinburgh

Table of Contents (Provisional)

History and types of Data

1.1 Introduction to the use of statistics in forensic science

1.2 Some examples of how statistics are used in forensic science

1.3 Types of data

1.4 Populations and samples

1.5 Distributions
* Location and dispersion

2.1 Location

2.2 Dispersion

2.3 Measurement error and hierarchy of error
* Simple probability

3.1 Absolute probability models

3.2 Binomial probability
* The normal distribution

4.1 Percentage points of the normal distribution

4.2 Standard deviation and standard error of the mean

4.3 Percentage points of the normal distribution
* Testing between sample means

5.1 The t distribution and the standard error of the mean

5.2 T testing between two independent samples
* Conditional probability

6.1 Why we need conditional probability and values of evidence

6.2 Conditional probability
* Bayes' theorem and the value of evidence

7.1 Bayes' theorem

7.2 The value of evidence
* Examples in the value of evidence

8.1 Blood group frequencies

8.2 Trouser fibres

8.3 Height description from eyewitness
* Errors in interpretation

9.1 Statistically based errors of interpretation

9.2 Methodological errors of interpretation
* DNA1

10.1 Loci and alleles

10.2 Simple case genotypic frequencies

10.3 Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium

10.4 Simple case allelic frequencies

10.5 Accounting for sub-populations
* DNA II

11.1 Paternity-mother and father unrelated

11.2 Database searches and value of evidence

11.3 Discussion
* Current developments in Forensic Statistics

12.1 How many drugs to sample

12.2 How many fibres to sample

12.3 Value of evidence from multivariate data

A References

B. Worked answers to questions

C. The standard Normal distribution

D. Percentage points of t-distributions

E. delta9-THC data