Forecasting International Migration in Eur...

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Beschreibung

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation.

In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Über den Autor

Jakub Bijak is Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton. He has background in economics (PhD 2008, Warsaw School of Economics) and over 20 years' work experience in academia and international civil service. His research focuses on demographic uncertainty, population and migration models and forecasts, and the demography of armed conflict. He has been awarded the Allianz European Demographer Award (2015) and the Jerzy Z Holzer Medal (2007) for work on migration modelling. Leader of a European Research Council project "Bayesian agent-based population studies" ([...] and a Horizon 2020 project "QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy" ([...]

Zusammenfassung

A lens to look through into the future of international migration in Europe A migration forecaster's toolkit, applying expert knowledge to account for uncertainty An honest account of the limits of predictability of international migration Hints for

population-related decision making under uncertainty

Inhaltsverzeichnis

PART I. INTRODUCTION 1. Introduction and background 2. Preliminaries PART II. EXPLAINING AND FORECASTING MIGRATION 3. Explaining migration: brief overview of selected theories 4. Forecasting migration: selected models and methods PART III. EXAMPLES OF BAYESIAN MIGRATION PREDICTIONS 5. Bayesian model selection and forecast averaging 6. Bayesian VAR modelling `from general to specific 7. Selected approaches to discontinuities in trends 8. Evaluation of presented forecasts of European migration 9. Bayesian computing in practice (Contributed by Arkadiusz Winiowski) PART IV. PERSPECTIVES OF FORECAST MAKERS AND USERS 10. Extensions and limitations of migration forecasts 11. Dealing with uncertain forecasts: A policy perspective PART V. CONCLUSION 12. Summary and conclusion: beyond migration forecasting Acknowledgements References Subject Index Index of Names ANNEX A. Data sources and the preparatory work ANNEX B. WinBUGS code used in the presented Bayesian forecasts ANNEX C. Bayesian forecasts of selected migration flows in Europe.

Details

Erscheinungsjahr:	2012
Genre:	Importe , Soziologie
Rubrik:	Wissenschaften
Medium:	Taschenbuch
Reihe:	The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis
Inhalt:	xxiv 316 S.
ISBN-13:	9789400733954
ISBN-10:	940073395X
Sprache:	Englisch
Einband:	Kartoniert / Broschiert
Autor:	Bijak, Jakub
Hersteller:	Springer Springer Netherland The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis
Verantwortliche Person für die EU:	Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, D-69121 Heidelberg, juergen.hartmann@springer.com
Maße:	235 x 155 x 19 mm
Von/Mit:	Jakub Bijak
Erscheinungsdatum:	01.12.2012
Gewicht:	0,517 kg