1 Introduction.- I: General Conditions for Tropical Timber Certification.- 2 Concepts of Sustainability and the Design of a Certification Scheme for Tropical Timber.- 3 Effectiveness and Efficiency of a Certification Scheme Aimed at Protecting Tropical Rain Forests.- 4 Certification and Tropical Timber Supply.- 5 Environmental Labels and Consumer Behaviour.- II: Basic Scenarios for a Certified Tropical Timber Market in the Federal Republic of Germany.- 6 Definitions, Database and Data Processing.- 7 Distribution of Tropical Timber in the Federal Republic of Germany.- 8 Trend Analysis and Basic Scenarios.- III: Extended Scenarios for a Certified Tropical Timber Market under Different Supply and Demand Constellations.- 9 Theoretical Foundations.- 10 Extended Scenarios for Individual Submarkets.- 11 Extended Scenarios of the Aggregate Timber Market.- 12 Conclusions.- A1 Procedure for Evaluating the Foreign Trade Statistics.- A2 Production Quantities and Values of Lacquer of German Production.- A3 List of Goods Categories in the Foreign Trade Statistics as Information Source for Tropical Timber.- A4 Net Imports of Tropical Timber into the Federal Republic of Germany.- A5 Conversion Factors for Evaluating the Foreign Trade Statistics.- A6 Recovery Rates.- A7 Domestic Final Consumption of Tropical Timber in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1984.- A8 Half-Finished Tropical Timber Products: Chief Uses and Substitutes.- A9 Finished Timber Products on the German Market Containing No or Negligible Tropical Timber from Natural Forests.- A10 Graphic Depiction of a Contracting or Expanding Demand.- A11 Determining the Reaction Directions of the Derived Demand.- Summary.