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Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management helps the reader to understand the various nuances of credit risk. It discusses various techniques to measure, analyze and manage credit risk for both lenders and borrowers. The book begins by defining what credit is and its advantages and disadvantages, the causes of credit risk, a brief historical overview of credit risk analysis and the strategic importance of credit risk in institutions that rely on claims or debtors. The book then details various techniques to study the entity level credit risks, including portfolio level credit risks.
Authored by a credit expert with two decades of experience in corporate finance and corporate credit risk, the book discusses the macroeconomic, industry and financial analysis for the study of credit risk. It covers credit risk grading and explains concepts including PD, EAD and LGD. It also highlights the distinction with equity risks and touches on credit risk pricing and the importance of credit risk in Basel Accords I, II and III. The two most common credit risks, project finance credit risk and working capital credit risk, are covered in detail with illustrations. The role of diversification and credit derivatives in credit portfolio management is considered. It also reflects on how the credit crisis develops in an economy by referring to the bubble formation. The book links with the 2008/2009 credit crisis and carries out an interesting discussion on how the credit crisis may have been avoided by following the fundamentals or principles of credit risk analysis and management.
The book is essential for both lenders and borrowers. Containing case studies adapted from real life examples and exercises, this important text is practical, topical and challenging. It is useful for a wide spectrum of academics and practitioners in credit risk and anyone interested in commercial and corporate credit and related products.
Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management helps the reader to understand the various nuances of credit risk. It discusses various techniques to measure, analyze and manage credit risk for both lenders and borrowers. The book begins by defining what credit is and its advantages and disadvantages, the causes of credit risk, a brief historical overview of credit risk analysis and the strategic importance of credit risk in institutions that rely on claims or debtors. The book then details various techniques to study the entity level credit risks, including portfolio level credit risks.
Authored by a credit expert with two decades of experience in corporate finance and corporate credit risk, the book discusses the macroeconomic, industry and financial analysis for the study of credit risk. It covers credit risk grading and explains concepts including PD, EAD and LGD. It also highlights the distinction with equity risks and touches on credit risk pricing and the importance of credit risk in Basel Accords I, II and III. The two most common credit risks, project finance credit risk and working capital credit risk, are covered in detail with illustrations. The role of diversification and credit derivatives in credit portfolio management is considered. It also reflects on how the credit crisis develops in an economy by referring to the bubble formation. The book links with the 2008/2009 credit crisis and carries out an interesting discussion on how the credit crisis may have been avoided by following the fundamentals or principles of credit risk analysis and management.
The book is essential for both lenders and borrowers. Containing case studies adapted from real life examples and exercises, this important text is practical, topical and challenging. It is useful for a wide spectrum of academics and practitioners in credit risk and anyone interested in commercial and corporate credit and related products.
Preface xvii
Part I Introduction
1 Credit Basics 3
1.1 Meaning of Credit 4
1.2 Role of Credit 6
1.3 Credit Market 6
1.4 Credit - Advantages and Disadvantages 7
1.4.1 Merits of Credit 7
1.4.2 Demerits of Credit Usage 9
1.4.3 Is Wealth Creation Through Use of Credit Easy and Simple? 10
1.5 Suppliers of Credit 11
1.6 Credit Risk Study 12
Appendix: Credit Creation 13
Questions/Exercises 14
2 Essentials of Credit Risk Analysis 15
2.1 Meaning of Credit Risk 15
2.2 Causes of Credit Risk 16
2.3 Credit Risk and Return 17
2.4 Credit Risk Analysis 17
2.5 Historical Progress of Credit Risk Analysis 19
2.6 Need for Credit Risk Analysis 19
2.7 Challenges of Credit Risk Analysis 22
2.7.1 The Art and Science of Credit Risk Analysis 22
2.8 Elements of Credit Risk Analysis 24
Questions/Exercises 25
3 Credit Risk Management 27
3.1 Strategic Position of Credit Risk Management 27
3.2 Credit Risk Management Context 28
3.3 Credit Risk Management Objectives 28
3.4 Credit Risk Management Structure 29
3.5 Credit Risk Culture 29
3.6 Credit Risk Appetite 30
3.7 Credit Risk Management in Non-Financial Firms 31
3.8 Credit Risk Management in Financial Intermediaries 31
3.8.1 Stages of Credit Risk Management in Financial Intermediaries 31
3.8.2 Credit Risk Management Process 33
Questions/Exercises 34
Part II Firm (or) Obligor Credit Risk
4 Fundamental Firm/Obligor-Level Risks 37
4.1 Firm (or) Obligor Risk Classification 37
4.1.1 Business Risks or Operating Risks (OR) 37
4.1.2 Financial Risks (FR) 38
4.2 Risk Matrix 39
4.3 Different Risk Levels 39
4.3.1 Low Operating Risk and Low Financial Risk 39
4.3.2 Low Operating Risk and Medium Financial Risk 39
4.3.3 Low Operating Risk and High Financial Risk 40
4.3.4 Medium Operating Risk and Low Financial Risk 40
4.3.5 Medium Operating Risk and Medium Financial Risk 40
4.3.6 Medium Operating Risk and High Financial Risk 40
4.3.7 High Operating Risk and Low Financial Risk 40
4.3.8 High Operating Risk and Medium Financial Risk 41
4.3.9 High Operating Risk and High Financial Risk 41
Questions/Exercises 42
5 External Risks 43
5.1 Business Cycle 43
5.1.1 Benefits of Study of Business Cycles 45
5.1.2 Credit Risk in the Business Cycle 46
5.2 Economic Conditions 46
5.2.1 Private Consumption 47
5.2.2 Government Spending 47
5.2.3 Investment 48
5.2.4 Imports and Exports 48
5.2.5 How to Link NI Components to the Firm 48
5.2.6 Benefits of Study of National Income 49
5.3 Inflation and Deflation 50
5.4 Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates 51
5.5 Political 52
5.6 Fiscal Policy 53
5.7 Monetary Policy 53
5.8 Demographic Factors 54
5.9 Regulatory Framework 55
5.10 Technology 55
5.11 Environment Issues 55
5.12 International Developments 56
5.13 Others 56
5.14 Monitoring External Risks 57
Questions/Exercises 58
6 Industry Risks 61
6.1 Understanding Obligor's Industry or Market 61
6.1.1 Sector vs. Industry vs. Market Segment 61
6.1.2 Challenges of Industry Classification 62
6.2 Types of Industry Risks 63
6.3 Industry Life Cycle 64
6.4 Permanence of Industry 65
6.5 Government Support 65
6.6 Industry and Factors of Production 66
6.7 Industry and Business Cycles 66
6.8 Industry Profitability 67
6.8.1 Competition Among the Existing Firms Within the Industry 68
6.8.2 Threat of New Entrants 68
6.8.3 Threat of Substitute Products 69
6.8.4 Bargaining Power of Buyers 69
6.8.5 Bargaining Power of Suppliers 70
6.9 Competitor/Peer Group Analysis 71
Questions/Exercises 77
7 Entity-Level Risks 79
7.1 Understanding the Activity 80
7.2 Risk Context and Management 81
7.3 Internal Risk Identification Steps 82
7.3.1 Interviews and Questioning 82
7.3.2 Market Developments and Peer Comparison 83
7.4 SWOT Analysis 83
7.5 Business Strategy Analysis 84
7.5.1 Cost Leadership 85
7.5.2 Differentiation 86
7.5.3 Contraction 86
7.5.4 Market Penetration 86
7.5.5 New Markets 87
7.5.6 New Products/Product Synergy Diversification 87
7.5.7 Product/Market Diversification 87
7.5.8 Consolidation 87
7.5.9 Merger/Takeover 87
7.5.10 Expansion 88
7.5.11 Cost Control 88
7.5.12 Focus 88
7.6 Pitfalls in Strategy 89
7.7 Management Analysis 90
7.7.1 One-Man Rule 91
7.7.2 Joint Chairman/CEO/MGD Position 91
7.7.3 Imbalance in Top Management Team 91
7.7.4 Weak Finance Function 92
7.7.5 Lack of Skilled Managers (or Inability to Attract Skilled Managers in Key Positions) 92
7.7.6 Disharmony in Management 92
7.7.7 Change in Ownership 92
7.7.8 Cultural Rigidity 92
7.7.9 Lack of Internal Controls 93
7.7.10 Low Staff Morale 93
7.7.11 Fraudulent Management 93
7.7.12 Myopic Vision 93
7.7.13 Big Projects 93
7.7.14 Inadequate Response to Change 94
7.7.15 Poor Corporate Governance 94
7.8 Other Internal Risks 94
Questions/Exercises 97
8 Financial Risks 99
8.1 Importance of Financial Statements 99
8.2 Quality and Quantity of Financial Statements 101
8.2.1 Quality of Financial Statements 101
8.2.2 Quantity of Financial Statements 102
8.3 Role of Historical Financial Statements 102
8.4 Financial Analysis 103
8.4.1 Balance Sheet 103
8.4.2 Income Statement (or) Profit and Loss Account 104
8.4.3 Cash Flow Statement (CFS) 105
8.5 Analytical Tools 105
8.5.1 Accounting Analysis 105
8.5.2 Common Sizing Analysis (CSA) 107
8.5.3 Indexed Trend Analysis (ITA) 110
8.5.4 Ratio Analysis 113
8.6 Solvency Ratios 115
8.6.1 Liquidity Ratios 115
8.6.2 Long Term Solvency Ratios 117
8.6.3 External Finance Ratios 120
8.6.4 Dividend and Equity Ratios 120
8.6.5 Cash Flow Ratios 121
8.7 Operational Ratios 123
8.7.1 Performance Ratios 123
8.7.2 Profitability Ratios 124
8.7.3 Return on Investment (ROI) Ratios 125
8.7.4 Asset Management (or Activity) Ratios 126
8.7.5 Leverage (Operating and Financial) Ratios 128
8.7.6 Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP) Ratios 133
8.8 Encapsulated Ratios 134
8.8.1 Dupont Model 134
8.8.2 Predictive Power of Ratios 135
Questions/Exercises 143
9 Integrated View of Firm-Level Risks 147
9.1 Relevance of an Integrated View 147
9.2 Judgement 147
9.3 Identifying Significant Credit Risks 148
9.4 Risk Mitigants 150
9.5 Types of Mitigants 150
9.5.1 Qualitative Mitigants 150
9.5.2 Quantitative Mitigants 152
9.5.3 Difference between Qualitative and Quantitative Mitigants 153
9.6 Principles to be Borne in Mind While Selecting Mitigants 153
9.7 Monitoring of Credit Risk 154
Appendix: Credit Risks and Possible Mitigants 155
Questions/Exercises 158
10 Credit Rating and Probability of Default 161
10.1 Credit Risk Grading 161
10.1.1 Linking EIIF Evaluation to Credit Risk Grades 161
10.1.2 Benefits of Credit Risk Grade System 163
10.2 Probability of Default 163
10.2.1 Benefits of PD Values 165
10.2.2 PD Values and Credit Decisions 165
10.3 External vs. Internal Rating 166
10.3.1 Reliability of External Ratings 167
10.3.2 Internal Ratings 168
10.4 PD in Credit Structural Models 169
10.4.1 The Merton Model (1974) 169
Questions/Exercises 172
Part III Credit Risks - Project and Working Capital
11 Credit Risks in Project Finance 177
11.1 Distinctive Features of Project Finance 177
11.2 Types of Project Finance 178
11.3 Reasons for Project Finance 179
11.3.1 Scarce Resources 179
11.3.2 Risk Sharing 179
11.3.3 Off-Balance Sheet Debt 179
11.3.4 Avoidance of Restrictive Covenants 179
11.3.5 Tax Considerations 180
11.3.6 Extended Tenor 180
11.4 Parties Involved in Project Finance 180
11.4.1 Sponsors 180
11.4.2 Project Lenders 180
11.4.3 Project Contractors/Consultants/Lawyers/Accountants 181
11.4.4 Governments 181
11.4.5 Multilateral Agencies 181
11.5 Phases of Project and Risks 182
11.5.1 Construction Phase Risks 182
11.5.2 Start-Up Phase Risks 182
11.5.3 Operational Phase Risks 183
11.6 Project Credit Risks 183
11.6.1 EIIF Risks 183
11.6.2 Project Specific Risks 184
11.6.3 Project Financial Viability Risks 186
11.7 Financial Study 187
11.7.1 Cash Flow Forecasts 187
11.7.2 Estimation of the Economic Worth of the Project 189
11.7.3 Assessing Creditworthiness - Building a Lender's Case 190
11.8 Project Credit Risk Mitigants 192
Questions/Exercises 202
12 Credit Risks in Working Capital 207
12.1 Definition of Working Capital 207
12.1.1 Working Capital Cycle - Finance Manager's Key Concern 207
12.1.2 Working Capital Cycle - Lending Bank's Point of View 208
12.2 Assessing Working Capital through the Balance Sheet 208
12.3 Working Capital Ratios 210
12.4 Working Capital Cycle 212
12.5 Working Capital vs. Fixed Capital 216
...| Erscheinungsjahr: | 2013 |
|---|---|
| Fachbereich: | Betriebswirtschaft |
| Genre: | Importe, Wirtschaft |
| Rubrik: | Recht & Wirtschaft |
| Medium: | Buch |
| Inhalt: | 448 S. |
| ISBN-13: | 9781118604915 |
| ISBN-10: | 1118604911 |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Einband: | Gebunden |
| Autor: | Joseph, Ciby |
| Hersteller: |
Wiley
John Wiley & Sons |
| Maße: | 250 x 175 x 29 mm |
| Von/Mit: | Ciby Joseph |
| Erscheinungsdatum: | 17.06.2013 |
| Gewicht: | 0,949 kg |
Preface xvii
Part I Introduction
1 Credit Basics 3
1.1 Meaning of Credit 4
1.2 Role of Credit 6
1.3 Credit Market 6
1.4 Credit - Advantages and Disadvantages 7
1.4.1 Merits of Credit 7
1.4.2 Demerits of Credit Usage 9
1.4.3 Is Wealth Creation Through Use of Credit Easy and Simple? 10
1.5 Suppliers of Credit 11
1.6 Credit Risk Study 12
Appendix: Credit Creation 13
Questions/Exercises 14
2 Essentials of Credit Risk Analysis 15
2.1 Meaning of Credit Risk 15
2.2 Causes of Credit Risk 16
2.3 Credit Risk and Return 17
2.4 Credit Risk Analysis 17
2.5 Historical Progress of Credit Risk Analysis 19
2.6 Need for Credit Risk Analysis 19
2.7 Challenges of Credit Risk Analysis 22
2.7.1 The Art and Science of Credit Risk Analysis 22
2.8 Elements of Credit Risk Analysis 24
Questions/Exercises 25
3 Credit Risk Management 27
3.1 Strategic Position of Credit Risk Management 27
3.2 Credit Risk Management Context 28
3.3 Credit Risk Management Objectives 28
3.4 Credit Risk Management Structure 29
3.5 Credit Risk Culture 29
3.6 Credit Risk Appetite 30
3.7 Credit Risk Management in Non-Financial Firms 31
3.8 Credit Risk Management in Financial Intermediaries 31
3.8.1 Stages of Credit Risk Management in Financial Intermediaries 31
3.8.2 Credit Risk Management Process 33
Questions/Exercises 34
Part II Firm (or) Obligor Credit Risk
4 Fundamental Firm/Obligor-Level Risks 37
4.1 Firm (or) Obligor Risk Classification 37
4.1.1 Business Risks or Operating Risks (OR) 37
4.1.2 Financial Risks (FR) 38
4.2 Risk Matrix 39
4.3 Different Risk Levels 39
4.3.1 Low Operating Risk and Low Financial Risk 39
4.3.2 Low Operating Risk and Medium Financial Risk 39
4.3.3 Low Operating Risk and High Financial Risk 40
4.3.4 Medium Operating Risk and Low Financial Risk 40
4.3.5 Medium Operating Risk and Medium Financial Risk 40
4.3.6 Medium Operating Risk and High Financial Risk 40
4.3.7 High Operating Risk and Low Financial Risk 40
4.3.8 High Operating Risk and Medium Financial Risk 41
4.3.9 High Operating Risk and High Financial Risk 41
Questions/Exercises 42
5 External Risks 43
5.1 Business Cycle 43
5.1.1 Benefits of Study of Business Cycles 45
5.1.2 Credit Risk in the Business Cycle 46
5.2 Economic Conditions 46
5.2.1 Private Consumption 47
5.2.2 Government Spending 47
5.2.3 Investment 48
5.2.4 Imports and Exports 48
5.2.5 How to Link NI Components to the Firm 48
5.2.6 Benefits of Study of National Income 49
5.3 Inflation and Deflation 50
5.4 Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates 51
5.5 Political 52
5.6 Fiscal Policy 53
5.7 Monetary Policy 53
5.8 Demographic Factors 54
5.9 Regulatory Framework 55
5.10 Technology 55
5.11 Environment Issues 55
5.12 International Developments 56
5.13 Others 56
5.14 Monitoring External Risks 57
Questions/Exercises 58
6 Industry Risks 61
6.1 Understanding Obligor's Industry or Market 61
6.1.1 Sector vs. Industry vs. Market Segment 61
6.1.2 Challenges of Industry Classification 62
6.2 Types of Industry Risks 63
6.3 Industry Life Cycle 64
6.4 Permanence of Industry 65
6.5 Government Support 65
6.6 Industry and Factors of Production 66
6.7 Industry and Business Cycles 66
6.8 Industry Profitability 67
6.8.1 Competition Among the Existing Firms Within the Industry 68
6.8.2 Threat of New Entrants 68
6.8.3 Threat of Substitute Products 69
6.8.4 Bargaining Power of Buyers 69
6.8.5 Bargaining Power of Suppliers 70
6.9 Competitor/Peer Group Analysis 71
Questions/Exercises 77
7 Entity-Level Risks 79
7.1 Understanding the Activity 80
7.2 Risk Context and Management 81
7.3 Internal Risk Identification Steps 82
7.3.1 Interviews and Questioning 82
7.3.2 Market Developments and Peer Comparison 83
7.4 SWOT Analysis 83
7.5 Business Strategy Analysis 84
7.5.1 Cost Leadership 85
7.5.2 Differentiation 86
7.5.3 Contraction 86
7.5.4 Market Penetration 86
7.5.5 New Markets 87
7.5.6 New Products/Product Synergy Diversification 87
7.5.7 Product/Market Diversification 87
7.5.8 Consolidation 87
7.5.9 Merger/Takeover 87
7.5.10 Expansion 88
7.5.11 Cost Control 88
7.5.12 Focus 88
7.6 Pitfalls in Strategy 89
7.7 Management Analysis 90
7.7.1 One-Man Rule 91
7.7.2 Joint Chairman/CEO/MGD Position 91
7.7.3 Imbalance in Top Management Team 91
7.7.4 Weak Finance Function 92
7.7.5 Lack of Skilled Managers (or Inability to Attract Skilled Managers in Key Positions) 92
7.7.6 Disharmony in Management 92
7.7.7 Change in Ownership 92
7.7.8 Cultural Rigidity 92
7.7.9 Lack of Internal Controls 93
7.7.10 Low Staff Morale 93
7.7.11 Fraudulent Management 93
7.7.12 Myopic Vision 93
7.7.13 Big Projects 93
7.7.14 Inadequate Response to Change 94
7.7.15 Poor Corporate Governance 94
7.8 Other Internal Risks 94
Questions/Exercises 97
8 Financial Risks 99
8.1 Importance of Financial Statements 99
8.2 Quality and Quantity of Financial Statements 101
8.2.1 Quality of Financial Statements 101
8.2.2 Quantity of Financial Statements 102
8.3 Role of Historical Financial Statements 102
8.4 Financial Analysis 103
8.4.1 Balance Sheet 103
8.4.2 Income Statement (or) Profit and Loss Account 104
8.4.3 Cash Flow Statement (CFS) 105
8.5 Analytical Tools 105
8.5.1 Accounting Analysis 105
8.5.2 Common Sizing Analysis (CSA) 107
8.5.3 Indexed Trend Analysis (ITA) 110
8.5.4 Ratio Analysis 113
8.6 Solvency Ratios 115
8.6.1 Liquidity Ratios 115
8.6.2 Long Term Solvency Ratios 117
8.6.3 External Finance Ratios 120
8.6.4 Dividend and Equity Ratios 120
8.6.5 Cash Flow Ratios 121
8.7 Operational Ratios 123
8.7.1 Performance Ratios 123
8.7.2 Profitability Ratios 124
8.7.3 Return on Investment (ROI) Ratios 125
8.7.4 Asset Management (or Activity) Ratios 126
8.7.5 Leverage (Operating and Financial) Ratios 128
8.7.6 Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP) Ratios 133
8.8 Encapsulated Ratios 134
8.8.1 Dupont Model 134
8.8.2 Predictive Power of Ratios 135
Questions/Exercises 143
9 Integrated View of Firm-Level Risks 147
9.1 Relevance of an Integrated View 147
9.2 Judgement 147
9.3 Identifying Significant Credit Risks 148
9.4 Risk Mitigants 150
9.5 Types of Mitigants 150
9.5.1 Qualitative Mitigants 150
9.5.2 Quantitative Mitigants 152
9.5.3 Difference between Qualitative and Quantitative Mitigants 153
9.6 Principles to be Borne in Mind While Selecting Mitigants 153
9.7 Monitoring of Credit Risk 154
Appendix: Credit Risks and Possible Mitigants 155
Questions/Exercises 158
10 Credit Rating and Probability of Default 161
10.1 Credit Risk Grading 161
10.1.1 Linking EIIF Evaluation to Credit Risk Grades 161
10.1.2 Benefits of Credit Risk Grade System 163
10.2 Probability of Default 163
10.2.1 Benefits of PD Values 165
10.2.2 PD Values and Credit Decisions 165
10.3 External vs. Internal Rating 166
10.3.1 Reliability of External Ratings 167
10.3.2 Internal Ratings 168
10.4 PD in Credit Structural Models 169
10.4.1 The Merton Model (1974) 169
Questions/Exercises 172
Part III Credit Risks - Project and Working Capital
11 Credit Risks in Project Finance 177
11.1 Distinctive Features of Project Finance 177
11.2 Types of Project Finance 178
11.3 Reasons for Project Finance 179
11.3.1 Scarce Resources 179
11.3.2 Risk Sharing 179
11.3.3 Off-Balance Sheet Debt 179
11.3.4 Avoidance of Restrictive Covenants 179
11.3.5 Tax Considerations 180
11.3.6 Extended Tenor 180
11.4 Parties Involved in Project Finance 180
11.4.1 Sponsors 180
11.4.2 Project Lenders 180
11.4.3 Project Contractors/Consultants/Lawyers/Accountants 181
11.4.4 Governments 181
11.4.5 Multilateral Agencies 181
11.5 Phases of Project and Risks 182
11.5.1 Construction Phase Risks 182
11.5.2 Start-Up Phase Risks 182
11.5.3 Operational Phase Risks 183
11.6 Project Credit Risks 183
11.6.1 EIIF Risks 183
11.6.2 Project Specific Risks 184
11.6.3 Project Financial Viability Risks 186
11.7 Financial Study 187
11.7.1 Cash Flow Forecasts 187
11.7.2 Estimation of the Economic Worth of the Project 189
11.7.3 Assessing Creditworthiness - Building a Lender's Case 190
11.8 Project Credit Risk Mitigants 192
Questions/Exercises 202
12 Credit Risks in Working Capital 207
12.1 Definition of Working Capital 207
12.1.1 Working Capital Cycle - Finance Manager's Key Concern 207
12.1.2 Working Capital Cycle - Lending Bank's Point of View 208
12.2 Assessing Working Capital through the Balance Sheet 208
12.3 Working Capital Ratios 210
12.4 Working Capital Cycle 212
12.5 Working Capital vs. Fixed Capital 216
...| Erscheinungsjahr: | 2013 |
|---|---|
| Fachbereich: | Betriebswirtschaft |
| Genre: | Importe, Wirtschaft |
| Rubrik: | Recht & Wirtschaft |
| Medium: | Buch |
| Inhalt: | 448 S. |
| ISBN-13: | 9781118604915 |
| ISBN-10: | 1118604911 |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Einband: | Gebunden |
| Autor: | Joseph, Ciby |
| Hersteller: |
Wiley
John Wiley & Sons |
| Maße: | 250 x 175 x 29 mm |
| Von/Mit: | Ciby Joseph |
| Erscheinungsdatum: | 17.06.2013 |
| Gewicht: | 0,949 kg |
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